Let's see... Each school interviewed ~40 candidates, 4-5 fly-outs, which gives us around 10% average success rate. So either gods have visited us on this blog or somebody had too much beer. Peace!
9:49 PM - You are surprised because you ignore the job market statistics. The median number of interviews for candidates from top 1-25 departments is 12. That for students from places ranked 26-50 is 6. Still surprised?
We shouldn't be surprised or anything, these 9/9 or 11/11 interview/flyouts are those from top 10 schools...they are abnormal!!! So DONT bother... Flashy people as well...........
7:01 AM - My source is exactly that mentioned by 8:20 AM. No offence, but it is always a good idea to form an opinion based on the entire distribution rather than a highly selected sample, don't you think? :-)
Come on pal, you had 40 interviews, 15 flyouts and 3 offers! The least you can do is allow us to tease you a little bit :-) Seriously, I am sorry if I offended you, I was just kidding but irony is hard to convey on a message board
80-85 applications, 28-30 interviews, 6-7 flyouts, and was off the market on my second offer.
The second time on the market:
15 applications, 7 interviews, 6-7 flyouts,...
the market works very differently the second time around. People have a lot more info on you than when you're a new Ph.D., and therefore interview you only if they are very serious. that's what explains the high interview-flyout ratio.
22 academic interviews (17 liberal arts and 5 low/unranked state schools) and 1 flyout so far. I'm getting a little depressed as 8 of the schools with which I interviewed have made flyouts according to the Wiki (and many of those were the ones with which I thought I stood a better chance of getting an interview), and 2 of the remaining schools I am completely uninterested in. So, I am 1 for 8 with 12 more chances (so much for the rule of thirds). (Oddly, writing this makes me feel a little less stressed, though I'm still ready to blow.)
If a large number of candidates have an inordinate amount of flyouts, the implication is that there will not be enough flyout candidates to accept offers. Does that mean a second round of flyouts or am I thinking wishfully here. Also, is there any way to gauge whether or not this year has more (or less) candidates (proportinally speaking) with a high number of flyouts.
The numbers depend on the fields a lot. What I know from talking to people (including assistant professors) is that microtheory people have (relatively) few interviews while applied micro have (relatively) many, but the conversion rate to flyouts is also vastly different, something like close to 50% for theory and less than 20% for applied... (my sample is still too small, though)
4:16: Congratulations! How long after your campus visit did you receive the offer? Did you hear from the Dean/Chair/someone else? Phone/Email? Do you think they would have contacted you if they went with somebody else?
Sorry for so many questions, as you can tell, I'm quite anxious myself...
6:41: It turns out that every job offer that is made is not accepted. So, not getting an offer first does not mean that you will not get an offer. (Obviously, it is better to be first on the list and get the offer first but I'm just pointing out the whole sequence of events.)
Schools will handle these issues differently, depending on their situation. Some places might call and say that an offer has been extended but that they are still interested in you. (At my first job, the school called and told me that I was second on the list and I would get the offer if someone else turned it down; three weeks later, I got the offer.) Other schools might just wait.
You might wonder how situations differ across schools. Some schools are allowed to use over-offering strategies. For example, the Dean's office will allow 3 outstanding offers when there are only 2 jobs. The department needs to convince the dean's office that the risk of getting 3 acceptances is low for this to make sense. (Don't worry -- these places will honor all 3 job offers.) Other deans are more risk averse and impose a sequential rule on making offers. Under a sequential rule, the school is more likely to impose a deadline and push candidates to make a decision since delay (or giving an extension) has a larger opportunity cost. With a sequential rule, the school will have more information to tell people who are in the queue about the possible timing of getting an offer.
Having been on both sides of the market, here is my experience: the candidates are notified ONLY after an offer has been accepted. In other words, if you are a finalist, you will hear one of two things - an offer or an email/call indicating someone else has been extended and accepted an offer. On the other hand, if you contact the school yourself to inquire about the status of the search, THAT is the situation handled differently by schools. Many will say "we have an offer outstanding", but some will simply say "we have not yet completed the search, please keep us updated as to your availability".
I had one refreshing incident when I was on the market.
I interviewed (first round) at Cornell Bus. School, and didn't get a flyback. A couple weeks later they called and told me that they'd seen one candidate that they liked and two that they didn't like. So, they wanted to see me as #4.
Here's the hitch: they'd already extended an offer to #1, so they essentially forewarned me that I was a backup. After my visit, #1 later accepted.
It was really refreshing to know exactly where I stood in the whole process... something I think of now when I deal with candidates.
Hey, I got a weird experience (so far): 8 interviews -> 0 fly-outs... But: 0 interviews -> 2 fly-outs (i.e. my two fly-outs, which are also relatively good, came out without interviews)... WICKED!
Dude, I might get concerned if I were you - could it be you don't interview particularly well? There seems to be initial interest to your candidacy on paper, but apparently not once they've met you?
many places are starting skip the interviwing part - LSE, UCL, Wawrick, Paris School of Economics, are those which I know.
Maybe interviewing a candidate during 25 mins, when many times the interviewers know very little about the candidate's field, is not the best way to asses his/her potential.
6:51 AM - a 25 min interview does add information on a candidate compared to just looking at paper, cv and letters; however, the marginal info might not be enough to cover the cost of interviewing
"11>3 (2 asked me to come by once I told them I am in the area, so really 11>1)"
Just wondering, did you have interviews with them?
More generally, is it completely "unacceptable" to call a place youd be well qualified for - but didnt interview with- asking whether theyd be interested?
I do not think that it is unacceptable. I did so and the school told me that if their search fails this year, they would consider me for a postdoc position.
"Is it ok to ask department chair/tenured faculty about health benefits, living expenses etc? Thanks."
Living expenses are expected, b/c they should tell you a lot about the area on a flyout.
Other benefits should be chosen carefully. Very little of the conversation should be about compensation until after the offer. Ask instead about research support, etc. since this will signal interest.
Instead, look up the schools human resources page to get retirement and health benefits (until you get the offer).
Re: 11>3 vs. 11>1 I don't think you should count it as 11>1 because they would still suffer a lot from you (while you are visiting them on the fly-out), so they wouldn't invite you unless they think that their suffering worth it...
What I believe 2:01 was trying to say is that you should certainly count all flyout interviews in your tally (that would make you 11 >> 3). The reason is that 2:25's criterion for converting an interview to a flyout is whether the cost of interviewing someone ("suffering" in his/her worlds) is high enough. 2:01 seems to believe that the cost is high for any interviewee due to the enormous time cost (meetings and time to schedule everyone). Moreover, he implied that the benefit of interviewing you surpassed this non-trivial cost. In short, I believe 2:25 was offering a supportive comment of you, not disparaging you. Don't worry if I am correct though, I think the stress is getting to all of us.
Ops, sorry! It's 2:01 again: I have been using "suffering" to describe costs they incur. I am sure they don't suffer from you any more - most probably less - then they suffer from me. The only "real" message in my post is that you should think of these fly-outs as real fly-outs not as accidental ones. Nothing personal...
I would like to see a flyout conversion rate for people who interviewed primarily at LA and low/unranked other non research focused schools. (When I say non-research focused schools I primarily mean non-Ph.D. schools. However I recognize that many non-Ph.D. schools do research, there is just less emphasis on it.) I want to see how the market is progressing for students whose job market is not centered on research focused schools. This may be useful information for people from non top-tier schools (or others applying to non research focused schools) as the timing may be significantly different compared to research focused schools. I propose the below format. If you have already posted, please repost using the below format if your schools were concentrated in the non research focused school category. Thank you.
9 interviews, 1 flyout to a fourth-tier regional state U with a 4-4 load.
I'm exploring other options.
I am also in the "second group" at 3 places so if all of their first choices take other jobs or die mysteriously or go off to India to "find themselves" or somehow end up tied up in my basement then I MIGHT get a call.
Congratulations with offers! Are they academic? It's back to the discussion of whether schools make offers before they see everyone they have already scheduled...
"somehow end up tied up in my basement then I MIGHT get a call."
Know the story. The only place Ive got a fighting chance for is actually near me. Ive thought about sending colleagues over to the job talks, so as to destroy the other candidates' talks. Is this a good idea. Im despeate. Real desperate.
I also have an offer from a place that has not yet seen all its candidates. But that's more a practical matter, to get things started... the chances that they make say 3 offers and all 3 are accepted up front are sufficiently slim that it should not be a concern.
To 10:02 -- Well, yes and (maybe) no. If you are doing say econometric theory and they've made you an offer, they are unlikely to make another offer in econometric theory before they hear from you, aren't they?
Unless they're trying to become the new hotbed of econometric theory.
I guess you raise a useful distinction between whether the search is strongly or weakly motivated by the fields; in this case, I believe it was weakly motivated, so that an offer to me was unlikely to preclude other offers (based on my discussion with them). I can't speak outside my own experience, of course.
In first case the offer was made after all the candidates were flown-out, and I was the last candidate, but the first choice on their list (known from private discussions).
The second one is a direct offer after the interview in Chicago.
83 comments:
The post is a bit premature isn't it. I have yet to get a flyout and there are tons of schools have yet to make calls.
24 interviews/ 8 fly-outs so far...
14 interviews, 7 flyouts so far
3 --> 1.
11 academic, 5 non-academic interviews
6 academic, 3 non-acad flyouts till now
14 --> 8.
19->9
14 interviews, 8 flyouts so far.
11 interviews, 11 flyouts
Damn, 9:32!
Let's see... Each school interviewed ~40 candidates, 4-5 fly-outs, which gives us around 10% average success rate. So either gods have visited us on this blog or somebody had too much beer. Peace!
16 interviews, 16 flyouts
...
...
...
see how is it is to WRITE it?
does not mean it's true though
:-)
What surprises me most is the number of interviews. 11? 14?
When I was on the market I did like 40 interviews, with about 15 flyout requests, and 3 offers.
9:49 PM - You are surprised because you ignore the job market statistics. The median number of interviews for candidates from top 1-25 departments is 12. That for students from places ranked 26-50 is 6. Still surprised?
Yes, I am. My cohort from a top ten program seemed to have more. But, that's just my recollection.
Could you let me know your source? Thanks.
I am not sure where 10:01 got their info but I bet it was here:
See Table 5 in this article:
http://www.aeaweb.org/joe/articles/2006/cawley.pdf
Folks.
We shouldn't be surprised or anything, these 9/9 or 11/11 interview/flyouts are those from top 10 schools...they are abnormal!!!
So DONT bother...
Flashy people as well...........
Not envious....I have plenty...
7:01 AM - My source is exactly that mentioned by 8:20 AM. No offence, but it is always a good idea to form an opinion based on the entire distribution rather than a highly selected sample, don't you think?
:-)
Not when the opinion is about something trivial. Then it's just wasted effort.
But, thanks for the info anyway... and thanks for throwing in the snobbiness for free.
Come on pal, you had 40 interviews, 15 flyouts and 3 offers! The least you can do is allow us to tease you a little bit :-)
Seriously, I am sorry if I offended you, I was just kidding but irony is hard to convey on a message board
OK, no problem. (but, note that cawley doesn't actually use the "entire distribution". he does use a sample *slightly* larger than mine though.)
I was surprised because the rule of 1/3 seemed so out of whack. If it holds, then 6 interviews --> 2 flyouts --> 0.667 offers!
I was also interviewing across the board: liberal arts, consulting, government, research, and business.
when I was on the new Ph.D. market:
80-85 applications, 28-30 interviews, 6-7 flyouts, and was off the market on my second offer.
The second time on the market:
15 applications, 7 interviews, 6-7 flyouts,...
the market works very differently the second time around. People have a lot more info on you than when you're a new Ph.D., and therefore interview you only if they are very serious. that's what explains the high interview-flyout ratio.
But Cawley's work is just for new PhD's right?
my crude stats are:
21 interviews into 6 flyouts so far
there is a selection bias on this blog. I had 9 interviews, no flyouts at all, Damn!
I had 17 interviews, 3 flyouts.
18 interviews, 7 flyouts.
11 interviews, 2 fly outs
13 interviews, 7 flyouts
20---->3
36->11
22 academic interviews (17 liberal arts and 5 low/unranked state schools) and 1 flyout so far. I'm getting a little depressed as 8 of the schools with which I interviewed have made flyouts according to the Wiki (and many of those were the ones with which I thought I stood a better chance of getting an interview), and 2 of the remaining schools I am completely uninterested in. So, I am 1 for 8 with 12 more chances (so much for the rule of thirds). (Oddly, writing this makes me feel a little less stressed, though I'm still ready to blow.)
If a large number of candidates have an inordinate amount of flyouts, the implication is that there will not be enough flyout candidates to accept offers. Does that mean a second round of flyouts or am I thinking wishfully here. Also, is there any way to gauge whether or not this year has more (or less) candidates (proportinally speaking) with a high number of flyouts.
25 interviews, 5 flyouts so far.
I know St.Cloud State University has made flyout offer, but I don't know how to edit wiki, so if you can help, you can mark the wiki.
Thanks 5:48 PM. I changed it.
21 interviews---->3 flyouts so far
Expecting at least 3 more based on the email exchanges since Chicago, as well.
The numbers depend on the fields a lot. What I know from talking to people (including assistant professors) is that microtheory people have (relatively) few interviews while applied micro have (relatively) many, but the conversion rate to flyouts is also vastly different, something like close to 50% for theory and less than 20% for applied... (my sample is still too small, though)
11 interviews--> 5 flyouts
21 academic interviews, 13 flyouts
16>>3
16-->4-->1
4:16: Congratulations! How long after your campus visit did you receive the offer? Did you hear from the Dean/Chair/someone else? Phone/Email? Do you think they would have contacted you if they went with somebody else?
Sorry for so many questions, as you can tell, I'm quite anxious myself...
5:15 PM - "Do you think they would have contacted you if they went with somebody else?"
What do you mean???
6:41 PM: What I meant to ask was whether the employers notify the candidate about their decision even if they do not select that candidate.
6:41: It turns out that every job offer that is made is not accepted. So, not getting an offer first does not mean that you will not get an offer. (Obviously, it is better to be first on the list and get the offer first but I'm just pointing out the whole sequence of events.)
Schools will handle these issues differently, depending on their situation. Some places might call and say that an offer has been extended but that they are still interested in you. (At my first job, the school called and told me that I was second on the list and I would get the offer if someone else turned it down; three weeks later, I got the offer.) Other schools might just wait.
You might wonder how situations differ across schools. Some schools are allowed to use over-offering strategies. For example, the Dean's office will allow 3 outstanding offers when there are only 2 jobs. The department needs to convince the dean's office that the risk of getting 3 acceptances is low for this to make sense. (Don't worry -- these places will honor all 3 job offers.) Other deans are more risk averse and impose a sequential rule on making offers. Under a sequential rule, the school is more likely to impose a deadline and push candidates to make a decision since delay (or giving an extension) has a larger opportunity cost. With a sequential rule, the school will have more information to tell people who are in the queue about the possible timing of getting an offer.
Having been on both sides of the market, here is my experience: the candidates are notified ONLY after an offer has been accepted. In other words, if you are a finalist, you will hear one of two things - an offer or an email/call indicating someone else has been extended and accepted an offer. On the other hand, if you contact the school yourself to inquire about the status of the search, THAT is the situation handled differently by schools. Many will say "we have an offer outstanding", but some will simply say "we have not yet completed the search, please keep us updated as to your availability".
I had one refreshing incident when I was on the market.
I interviewed (first round) at Cornell Bus. School, and didn't get a flyback. A couple weeks later they called and told me that they'd seen one candidate that they liked and two that they didn't like. So, they wanted to see me as #4.
Here's the hitch: they'd already extended an offer to #1, so they essentially forewarned me that I was a backup. After my visit, #1 later accepted.
It was really refreshing to know exactly where I stood in the whole process... something I think of now when I deal with candidates.
Hey, I got a weird experience (so far): 8 interviews -> 0 fly-outs... But: 0 interviews -> 2 fly-outs (i.e. my two fly-outs, which are also relatively good, came out without interviews)... WICKED!
Dude, I might get concerned if I were you - could it be you don't interview particularly well? There seems to be initial interest to your candidacy on paper, but apparently not once they've met you?
How do you get a flyout without an interview? Did your advisor call some people?
I got two flyouts without interviews too - and both to places ranked around 20! Maybe this is not so uncommon.
many places are starting skip the interviwing part - LSE, UCL, Wawrick, Paris School of Economics, are those which I know.
Maybe interviewing a candidate during 25 mins, when many times the interviewers know very little about the candidate's field, is not the best way to asses his/her potential.
6:51 AM - a 25 min interview does add information on a candidate compared to just looking at paper, cv and letters; however, the marginal info might not be enough to cover the cost of interviewing
Is it ok to ask department chair/tenured faculty about health benefits, living expenses etc? Thanks.
3:19 -- pls post only in appropriate thread i.e. questions to the demand side.
25 -> 9
0.13 apps -> 24 iviews -> 137 flyouts -> 2.84x10^12 offers so far.
Such is the market for a new PhD from East Boondocks State. My job market paper is on "Monetary Policy in Barter-Based Economies".
Gospel truth I tell you!
"I got two flyouts without interviews too - and both to places ranked around 20! Maybe this is not so uncommon."
Does anyone have an answer to this important question?
11>3 (2 asked me to come by once I told them I am in the area, so really 11>1)
"11>3 (2 asked me to come by once I told them I am in the area, so really 11>1)"
Just wondering, did you have interviews with them?
More generally, is it completely "unacceptable" to call a place youd be well qualified for - but didnt interview with- asking whether theyd be interested?
I do not think that it is unacceptable. I did so and the school told me that if their search fails this year, they would consider me for a postdoc position.
"Is it ok to ask department chair/tenured faculty about health benefits, living expenses etc? Thanks."
Living expenses are expected, b/c they should tell you a lot about the area on a flyout.
Other benefits should be chosen carefully. Very little of the conversation should be about compensation until after the offer. Ask instead about research support, etc. since this will signal interest.
Instead, look up the schools human resources page to get retirement and health benefits (until you get the offer).
Re: 11>3 vs. 11>1
I don't think you should count it as 11>1 because they would still suffer a lot from you (while you are visiting them on the fly-out), so they wouldn't invite you unless they think that their suffering worth it...
to 2:01pm
It is getting personal. You never met me but are sure that interacting with me is a pain... well, well... we'll see... who laughs the last... :)
To 2:25,
What I believe 2:01 was trying to say is that you should certainly count all flyout interviews in your tally (that would make you 11 >> 3). The reason is that 2:25's criterion for converting an interview to a flyout is whether the cost of interviewing someone ("suffering" in his/her worlds) is high enough. 2:01 seems to believe that the cost is high for any interviewee due to the enormous time cost (meetings and time to schedule everyone). Moreover, he implied that the benefit of interviewing you surpassed this non-trivial cost. In short, I believe 2:25 was offering a supportive comment of you, not disparaging you. Don't worry if I am correct though, I think the stress is getting to all of us.
Ops, sorry! It's 2:01 again: I have been using "suffering" to describe costs they incur. I am sure they don't suffer from you any more - most probably less - then they suffer from me. The only "real" message in my post is that you should think of these fly-outs as real fly-outs not as accidental ones.
Nothing personal...
to 4:28pm and 2:01pm (aka 6:45pm)
---
I meant my comment as a joke so I put a smiley face on it. I am sorry if it did not convey that. (2:25pm)
8:50 a.m. again:
Well, but we have proven that it is indeed a pain to interact with you! (Or have we proven it in the other direction?) :-)
I would like to see a flyout conversion rate for people who interviewed primarily at LA and low/unranked other non research focused schools. (When I say non-research focused schools I primarily mean non-Ph.D. schools. However I recognize that many non-Ph.D. schools do research, there is just less emphasis on it.) I want to see how the market is progressing for students whose job market is not centered on research focused schools. This may be useful information for people from non top-tier schools (or others applying to non research focused schools) as the timing may be significantly different compared to research focused schools. I propose the below format. If you have already posted, please repost using the below format if your schools were concentrated in the non research focused school category. Thank you.
LA/Other: 21 > 1.
From a school ranked between 60-120.
Had 12 interviews at AEA, plus 2 over the phone before the AEA.
Received 8 flyouts.
1 postdoc
1 SLAC (3/3 teaching load)
2 teaching universities (3/3)
1 consulting firm
3 research universities (2/2)
The research universities have 2/2, but are not R1. One of them is a private university, the other 2 are state universities.
Interviews: 14
Fly-outs: 0
(they were all train or bus distance!)
12 interviews, 1 flyout so far.
24 interviews > 10 Fly-outs > 2 Offers so far.
9 interviews, 1 flyout to a fourth-tier regional state U with a 4-4 load.
I'm exploring other options.
I am also in the "second group" at 3 places so if all of their first choices take other jobs or die mysteriously or go off to India to "find themselves" or somehow end up tied up in my basement then I MIGHT get a call.
I hope that makes someone feel better.
me = 25-50 ranked program
12 interviews > 8 Fly-outs > 2 Offers so far
Congratulations with offers! Are they academic? It's back to the discussion of whether schools make offers before they see everyone they have already scheduled...
"somehow end up tied up in my basement then I MIGHT get a call."
Know the story. The only place Ive got a fighting chance for is actually near me.
Ive thought about sending colleagues over to the job talks, so as to destroy the other candidates' talks. Is this a good idea. Im despeate. Real desperate.
5:01 PM - Thanks! Yes, academic offers. In one case I know they haven't seen all of their candidates yet.
I also have an offer from a place that has not yet seen all its candidates. But that's more a practical matter, to get things started... the chances that they make say 3 offers and all 3 are accepted up front are sufficiently slim that it should not be a concern.
To 10:02 -- Well, yes and (maybe) no. If you are doing say econometric theory and they've made you an offer, they are unlikely to make another offer in econometric theory before they hear from you, aren't they?
Unless they're trying to become the new hotbed of econometric theory.
I guess you raise a useful distinction between whether the search is strongly or weakly motivated by the fields; in this case, I believe it was weakly motivated, so that an offer to me was unlikely to preclude other offers (based on my discussion with them). I can't speak outside my own experience, of course.
To 5:01 PM
Both the offers are academic.
In first case the offer was made after all the candidates were flown-out, and I was the last candidate, but the first choice on their list (known from private discussions).
The second one is a direct offer after the interview in Chicago.
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